Portfolio Optimization for a Mix of Wind, BESS and Storage at a fixed Grid Connection
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Portfolio Optimization for a Mix of Wind, BESS and Storage at a fixed Grid Connection
43.5 €/MWh
Best VALCOE
80% PV · 50% wind · 400 MWh · DA+Ancillary
−33%
vs. best no-storage
65.1 €/MWh reference (140% PV · 50% wind)
900
Scenarios simulated
PV 50–140% · Wind 50–140% · BESS 0–400 MWh
133%
Market capture rate
Optimal portfolio · Selling above market average
This study evaluates 900 portfolio configurations on a fixed 100 MW grid connection — combining PV (50–140 MWp), wind (50–140 MW) and BESS (0–400 MWh) across all meaningful combinations. The central finding: storage is the dominant value lever in hybrid portfolios — not wind.
A 400 MWh BESS reduces VALCOE by 33% versus the best no-storage portfolio (43.5 vs. 65.1 €/MWh), cuts curtailment from 12% to 2%, and lifts market capture rate from 91–111% to 133%. Wind alone barely moves these metrics. Ancillary services (FCR/aFRR) add a structurally separate revenue channel accessible only to BESS — shifting the portfolio optimum from 100% PV to 80% PV with an additional 17.1 €/MWh VALCOE improvement.
The recommended portfolio — 80% PV, 50% wind, 400 MWh BESS — achieves a VALCOE of 43.5 €/MWh with a CapEx of €171.7M. The CapEx difference versus the Day-Ahead-only optimum is just €2.9M.
43.5 €/MWh
Best VALCOE
80% PV · 50% wind · 400 MWh · DA+Ancillary
−33%
vs. best no-storage
65.1 €/MWh reference (140% PV · 50% wind)
900
Scenarios simulated
PV 50–140% · Wind 50–140% · BESS 0–400 MWh
133%
Market capture rate
Optimal portfolio · Selling above market average
Portfolio comparison
Methodology at a glance
| Grid connection | 100 MW (fixed) — all asset sizes expressed as % of this connection |
| PV range | 50–140 MWp (50, 60, 80, 100, 120, 140%) |
| Wind range | 50–140 MW (same steps) |
| BESS | 0, 200, 400 MWh at 4h duration; DA-only optimum: 300 MWh (3h) |
| CapEx PV | €480k/MWp |
| CapEx Wind | €1.65M/MW |
| CapEx BESS | €127k/MWh (4h system) |
| WACC | 7% (unlevered, pre-tax) |
| Asset life | 20 years |
| Wholesale model | Day-Ahead spot, Germany 2028 hourly forward |
| Ancillary (FCR/aFRR) | BESS only · Year-1: ~€65k/MW/year · 8% annual decline |
| Market basis | phelas Catalyst model · Germany · COD 2028 |
Full interactive charts, per-configuration results, and the complete conclusion are available after registration below.
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