Green BESS Forecast — What-If Scenarios
The Green BESS Forecast tracks the economic development of PV-BESS co-location projects in Germany — fully market-based, without EEG subsidies. All values in EUR/MWh relative to annual PV generation. Data basis: 5 what-if market price scenarios for 2026–2045 — not developed in collaboration with FfE.
Generation profile
- Generation
- 10,545 MWh/a
- Full-load hours
- 1,055 h/a
- Price scenarios
- 5
The 5 Price Scenarios at a Glance
phelas analytics — proprietary market price forecasts, Q1 2026 Edition
The 5 price scenarios are not classic point forecasts but a "what-if lab" for testing PV, wind and storage revenues under different market and transformation pathways. The basis is real 2024 market behaviour (prices, generation and load profiles), on which a "booster logic" for solar, wind and flexibility buildout is applied per scenario.
Price Scenario 1
Disorderly Transition (Worst Case)
Delayed energy transition and grid expansion — renewables catch up only late. Persistently high, highly volatile prices with strong cannibalisation; negative price hours rise to very high levels (~1,600 h/year).
Price Scenario 2
Downside but Plausible
A slower, costlier but undisrupted transition. Gas remains price-setting for longer; prices decline only gradually and stay elevated. Moderate erosion of the solar capture rate.
Price Scenario 3
Central / Managed Transition
Reference scenario: RE targets largely achieved, system stays balanced and investable. Moderate price level; negative price hours fall to roughly 300–400 h/year by 2060.
Price Scenario 4
Fast Transition, Low Flexibility
Very high RE buildout but insufficient flexibility, storage and grid expansion. Very low prices from strong cannibalisation; negative price hours reach extreme levels (~1,800 h/year).
Price Scenario 5
Coordinated & Flexible
Best-case scenario: high RE buildout meets proactive grid, storage and flexibility expansion. Prices and capture rates stay close together; negative price hours fall to a few dozen h/year by 2060.
Green BESS Forecast 2025, 2027–2030
EUR / MWhExtension
Price Scenario 3 now also for Wind North and Wind South
For the reference scenario we now model co-location beyond PV, adding two wind profiles: a northern German site with high full-load hours and a low-wind southern site. All three profiles have 10 MW generation capacity on the same grid connection but differ markedly in volume and timing, and therefore in the value a battery adds.
Price Scenario 3 — PV, Wind North and Wind South with storage
Revenue per MWh generated, 2027 to 2046 · phelas analytics
Storage power
Storage duration
Marketing
PV
97.8EUR/MWh
- without storage
- 47.8
- Uplift
- +50.1 (105 %)
- curtailment avoided
- 1,815 MWh/a
- Generation
- 10,545 MWh/a
Wind North
90.9EUR/MWh
- without storage
- 60.0
- Uplift
- +30.9 (51 %)
- curtailment avoided
- 1,699 MWh/a
- Generation
- 18,619 MWh/a
Wind South
97.0EUR/MWh
- without storage
- 64.6
- Uplift
- +32.4 (50 %)
- curtailment avoided
- 1,327 MWh/a
- Generation
- 15,915 MWh/a
All profiles at 10 MW generation capacity on the same grid connection, averaged over 2027 to 2046. The battery charges exclusively from own generation. Values refer to MWh generated rather than exported, so avoided curtailment raises the figure.
Related
Note: All analyses and figures are based on simplified model assumptions and historical market data. They are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute investment advice. Project-specific analyses account for individual site parameters, current market prices, and financing structures.
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